August’s First Trading Day Weak Last 25 Years

On page 90 of the Stock
Trader’s Almanac 2023
, it is shown that the first trading days of each
month combined have produced an outsized share of the market’s overall gains.
However, the first trading day of August does not contribute to this phenomenon
ranking worst among other First Trading Days in the 2023 Almanac. In the
upcoming 2024 edition of the Almanac August’s first trading day is second
worst (December is worst). In the past 24 years DJIA has risen just 32.0% (up 8,
down 17) of the time on the first trading day of August. Several sizable gains
in those up years, have mitigated the average first day percent change, but the
median performance is a more sizable loss. Over the past 12 years, DJIA and
S&P 500 have both declined 9 times.