Yesterday‘s JOLTS stunner not only didn‘t paint the picture of economic acceleration (my humble prediction), but showed strong job market deterioration. Together with the more than five non-farm payrolls revisions to the downside, it invited a sharp retreat in yields triggering rush to Big Tech safety.
Right or wrong as stocks cut through 4,465 in no time, that allowed for quick recovery in Intraday Signals while 4,485 resistance was hanging in the air. 4,508 level was reached,, and the next 4,515 resistance stopped the buyers premarket.
Market is focused on Fed easing now, and with yields retreating (I still say 10y very solidly below 4%), the forward earnings repricing angle in stocks has to wait. What‘s though suspicious, is that financials didn‘t take a better advantage yesterday. Concluding with yesterday‘s premium thoughts – the question mark is where do stocks start to reflect worsening underlying landscape, and tech not being a safe haven. Also, the most reliable plays remain precious metals at the moment,
Anyway, as today‘s title suggests, I think that yesterday‘s gains would be getting dialed back, starting today.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
4,529 – 4,535 area won‘t be reached, and fresh selling is likely to take over, affecting also tech even if yields retreated. Cyclicals and value with smallcaps surely won‘t like this real economy deterioration – 4,515 remains resistance, reaching 4,492 is the accelerator to breaking down towards 4,465, which though isn‘t overwhelmingly likely to happen today. See this tweet about DIS to check how discerning the market is, even if euphoric overall. The price action in the opening 15min though suggests that buyers want to have a go at 4,535 ultimately, still today.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Precious metals remain the most reliable performers, and a test of $1,980 is slowly but surely approaching – powered by retreat in yields more so than gyrating dollar. Even the hot silver is still a buy here.
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