The recent 21-year typical November graph here points to a
seasonal cycle low point tomorrow, the 14th trading day of the
month, the Friday before Thanksgiving and Op-Ex
day. Thanksgiving week has a notorious “holiday fueled” bullish bias as do
the last seven trading days of the month.
However, as you can see from the tables here of the history
of the Thanksgiving trade the bullish bias has weakened over the last several years.
The best short-term trade appears to be getting long into any weakness in the
week or days before the holiday and selling any subsequent rally toward the end
of Thanksgiving week or before month-end.
First published in the 1987
Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Wednesday before and the Friday after
Thanksgiving combined were up 34 times in 35 years. The only S&P 500 decline
was in 1964. Subsequently, this trend changed. In the 35 years since 1987,
there have been 10 declines and 25 advances. See 2023
Stock Trader’s Almanac page 106 for more.